The Weekly Review

We see that the market is still very volatile, moving up and down. As it approaches its support, we are still uncertain whether will it bounce to higher or just fall. From my point of view, it is likely to go lower due to the presence of rejection of its resistance. EUR/JPY has a pinbar in its 4h timeframe and also in the daily. EUR/USD too has a rejection pinbar in 4h timeframe.

Not A Rally for The Euro

Bump! Despite the good news, the market decided to bring down the Euro, Aussie and stock market. Rejected and went down fast during the night while I was sleeping.

Euro looking bullish again?

A very strong bottom formed for the EUR/USD. It just refuse to break and keep bouncing up. Again wide swings for the market and it's ranging.

The Weekly Review

It has been a very bumpy ride for me this week as there were huge up swings and down swings. Last night has the biggest volatility! But most importantly is to spot the action-reaction of these movements. Sometimes it appears on the 1hr, 4hr, daily. Even at most critical movements can be spotted in the 1min, 5 min charts.

Looking at the Euro, we had big movements last night. In the end we got 2 pinbars formed. This is a rejection of price and it looks bearish. EUR/USD had touched it's resistance last week so now it's going down. British pound is also looking bearish on it's daily. It seems to be a good risk reward factor.

Ezion has been on a good rally for the past few months. Now will it reverse and fall or the BBs will keep pushing it up?

Tough Trade

It's tough to trade tonight. Big moves, huge volatility.

Euro Correction

Seems like the Euro is experiencing a correction after that huge rally. Bearish for the next few days.

Action-Reaction

This is what I call an action-reaction. Consolidation, rejected off the support, then a breakout.

Edit: I see shorting on EUR/USD. So beware of your longs.

Weekly Review of Forex Market

We had a spectacular rally for the Euro in the last few weeks. A bull after the bears. Right now the EUR/USD had just touched a resistance in the weekly timeframe. Will there be a retrace? We will have to wait. If it retrace it will be good time to buy again when we see a reaction off its support.

EUR/JPY broke through it's resistance and it's still far from the next resistance. Like wise I prefer to be conservative for a while and wait for another action in the 1hr or 4 hr timeframe.

The Aussie will be tricker as it has gone down abit and rested on my sliding support/resistance. Looking at the weekly chart, I'm still bullish on the Aussie. Enter when it had some support in the 4 hr timeframe next week.

5 Things You Must Know About Singapore Home Loans

By Ryan Ong | MoneySmart

Five Details That Matter

If there was a Home Loans Monthly magazine, it’d be illegal to read it aloud. The resulting boredom would send half a district into a coma.

So it’s not surprising that most people don’t keep up with home loans; not until they need one. Then they wander into the market wide-eyed and confused, like Bambi staring down the barrel of a shotgun. The lucky ones pick through the banker’s jargon, and realize:

• The Main Difference Between SIBOR and SOR
• What the “X” Months in Front of the Interbank Rate Means
• Fixed Rates in Singapore Don’t Last the Entire Loan
• Variable Rates May Not Be Transparent
• Property Agents Get Paid When They Refer You to Bankers

1. The Main Difference Between SIBOR and SOR

SIBOR and SOR are both interbank rates.

SIBOR (Singapore Inter-Bank Offered Rate) tracks the rate at which local banks lend to each other. Almost every country has its own counterpart, such as JIBOR (Jakarta Inter-Bank Offered Rate) in Indonesia, and the now notorious LIBOR (London Inter-Bank Offered Rate) in the UK.

And before you ask, no, SIBOR is not as easy to “fix” as LIBOR. SIBOR rates are based on transactions, whereas LIBOR rates were based on hypothetical estimates (read: whatever the hell their bankers felt like).

“So the dollar fights the %, and then…Mr Ong, I really don’t know how to simplify this further.”

SOR (Swap Offer Rate) is based on foreign exchange rates, between the US dollar and Singapore dollar. You can check the SIBOR or SOR rates yourself.

With some exceptions, SIBOR and SOR move in tandem. When SOR rises, SIBOR tends to rise. When SOR falls, SIBOR tends to fall. So what’s the difference between them?

Volatility.

SOR is sensitive to global market shifts. Because SIBOR is local, it responds more sluggishly to changes outside Singapore. So when the SIBOR rate moves, it does so by a smaller margin than the SOR rate.

As an example:

On 2 July 2012, the SIBOR rate was around 0.38%. A month later, on 1 August 2012, the SIBOR rate was around 0.37%. That’s a movement of about 0.01%.

On 2 July 2012, the SOR rate was also around 0.38%. On 1 August 2012, the SOR rate was around0.35%. That’s a movement of around 0.03%. Note that SOR’s margin of movement was three times greater.

That makes SOR better suited to risk-takers. When the SOR rate drops, you save more money compared to SIBOR. But when the SOR rate rises, you also lose more.

2. What the “X” Months in Front of the Interbank Rate Means

At least it’s not *unplanned* homelessness.

A SIBOR or SOR rate is expressed with a number of months in front of it. For example, a loan package could be based on “3 months SIBOR”, or “1 month SOR”.

The number of months determines how often your interest rate is “refreshed”. If you take a 1 month SIBOR, for example, your interest rate will adjust to match SIBOR every month. That means your loan repayments can be different every month. If you take a 3 month SIBOR, your interest rate will only adjust every 3 months.

Interbank rates can come in 1, 2, 3, 6, 9, or 12 month rates. However, most home loans will only use a 1 month or 3 months rate.

In general, 1 month SIBOR / SOR tends to be cheaper during a down trend (when interest rates show a pattern of falling). During an up trend, the opposite is true.

3. Fixed Rates in Singapore Don’t Last the Entire Loan

“Funny enough, there’s a difference between fixed rates and rate fixing. Now please call off the police.”

In other countries, fixed rates can last the entire loan tenure. Your loan repayments could be the exact same amount, from year 1 to 30. But that’s too unexciting for Singaporeans.

In Singapore, most fixed rate packages last three years. After that, you’re back on a floating rate. The only way to “extend” your fixed rate is to refinance. You need to find another bank that’s offering a fixed rate, and then switch your loan to that bank.

If you insist on fixed rates, it’s advisable to start looking toward the end of your third year; this will give you time to compare rates. You can find the information on free loan comparison sites likeSmartLoans.sg.

Or follow us on Facebook; we’ll let you know when we see interesting loan packages.

4. Variable Rates May Not Be Transparent

“Alright, I’ll let you know the board rates in a minute. Distract that guard.”

In Singapore, the term “variable rate” often means a loan package which uses neither SIBOR nor SOR. Instead, such packages are tied to a IBR (Internal Board Rate).

Each bank manages its own Internal Board Rate. Banks sometimes disclose the history of their board rate, in an attempt to convince clients. But for the most part, there is little transparency in a variable rate. Likewise, banks do not need to justify movements in their board rate; this is different from SIBOR or SOR, which are public and regulated.

I’m not implying that banks lie about their board rates. I’m implying it’s easy if they want to. So while a board rate may seem cheap, just ask yourself: How much do I trust this bank?

5. Property Agents Get Paid When They Refer You to Bankers

“In conclusion, this banker knows what he’s doing. I mean, this coffee house is awesome.”

Property agents can be demanding with regard to bankers. Sometimes they’ll threaten to raise prices, or to let a deal fall through, unless you use “their” banker.

That’s because the agents want a referral fee. When your agent directs you to a banker, and you get your home loan from that banker, the agent gets paid for it. Problem is, the property agent might not care that you’re getting a bad loan.

When your property agent refers you to a banker, always get a second opinion. Compare home loans yourself, and find the best deal.

Huge Rally In Euro

I mentioned previously that I remained bullish on the Euro. Yesterday, the Euro was in a limbo until the FED announces another surprising round of QE. This made the huge volatility and then pushes the Euro up. The same goes for Aussie as they are correlated.

Right now it seems that a pinbar is forming for the Aussie and Euro. So if you are long, why not take some profit and enjoy the weekend?

The Euro: The Long

Huge volatility in the afternoon. I maintain my long bias for Euro. As the EUR/JPY is reaching its weekly resistance, there might be another round of consolidation.

Crazy Euro, Aussie Long

Seems like a strong long for the Aussie. Wonder what's making the Aussie so strong? While I thought that the Euro will continue its long yesterday, the "Anything can happen" situation appeared. Things are not that predictable usually. One can only go with the flow.

Aussie Long

Aussie looking bullish again. A support at 1.03342 pushing up.

Euro: Upside Bias?

Up or going down? Looks well supported but still anything can happen. I will have an upside bias for EUR/USD and EUR/JPY.

Edit: Slowly creeping down. Still unknown.

Update 2: Looking bullish again.

Noble Group: Bullish Trend Forming

Noble Group caught my eye when I was looking at the EOD data on Wednesday. Saw that it had a selldown touching on its support. However we need to see the reaction for the next day and saw that it had bounced off its support on Thursday. This indicated to me that it is time to enter. Of course the better timing is actually to enter on Thursday once you see that bounce but that's for the full time traders who have all the time. Will Noble Group continue its bullish trend? Time will tell.

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The Euro Breakout

Thanks to the announcement of unlimited bond buying, the Euro broke up like a rocket. As I mentioned, EUR/JPY broke out of its consolidation last night and climbed up. Be sure to take partial profits when you are satisfied with your own target price.

Going Long on Aussie

A pinbar rejection with bullish today, I'll go long on Aussie for awhile. There will be two resistance which you can take profit.

EUR/USD Long

After a fall yesterday night. It may be time to go for a short term long. It is currently challenging the resistance. If it fails then might be another fall.

Euro: Dancing Around

The Euro is still in a limbo though it seemed to be pushing upwards. Shall wait for any more action.

Edit: Looks bearish now, but it will still consolidate for a while. I'm still bearish on AUD/USD.

Aussie Bear

The Aussie continues its bearish run after a gap down once it opened this morning. Continues to show bearish pinbar indicating a continued short.

CapMallsAsia: Further Upside

CapMallsAsia might continue its upside after finding some support at around 1.60.

Euro: Back Into Consolidation

The Euro did try a breakout of its resistance last night. However it is quickly rejected and now it's back into the consolidation range. We will have to wait for further action as this breakout will result in a long-term bull for the Euro.

Aussie continues to be funky, going down, then rejected up, then again rejected down giving us another bearish pinbar. Hope you got your profit from the first pinbar, it was a very fast and profitable trade.